Market Highlights

Wall Street’s bulls drove stocks to all-time highs at the end of a solid quarter amid hopes the US is moving closer to reaching concrete deals with its top trading partners. Bets the Federal Reserve will resume rate cuts powered the best first-half stretch for Treasuries in fiveyears. The dollar saw its longest monthly slide since 2017. Following a roughly 25% surge from its April lows, the S&P 500 notched its best quarter since December 2023. The US equity benchmark topped the 6,200 milestone on Monday, with technology shares leading the charge. Apple Inc. climbed the most among megacaps. Oracle Corp. jumped on a cloud-services deal worth $30 billion a year. Big banks gained after passing the Fed’s annual stress test, setting the stage for payouts. Stocks kicked off the second half by building on a record-breaking rally as expectations grow that the US economy will withstand uncertainties from President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda.

The market for Additional Tier 1 bonds has become so overheated that one of the world’s top holders of the risky bank debt is considering pulling back. Algebris Investments, which holds about 􀉲12billion ($14 billion) AT1s within its Financial Credit Fund, has been skipping a number of new offerings as it sees little juice at current spreads. In some cases, the asset manager might look to replace existing issues that are being repaid with safer types of debt like Tier 2 bonds and senior debt. Stock-index futures for the US and Europe advanced as progress in several trade negotiations boosted sentiment.

Wall Street’s renewed push toward all-time highs saw stock investors setting aside recent geopolitical fears amid hopes that a resumption of Federal Reserve rate cuts will fuel the outlook for the economy and Corporate America. Treasury yields fell alongside the dollar. A nearly $10 trillion surge in the S&P 500 from the edge of a bear market put the gauge briefly above its Feb. 19 closing peak of 6,144.15. The benchmark ended just shy of that mark at 6,141.02. Big tech led gains. Banks climbed as a veteran analyst said that as long as there’s no recession, it’s “game on” for the shares. A closely watched gauge of stock volatility - the VIX - slid to 16.59 after topping 52 at the height of April’s tariff-fueled turmoil. Asian stocks and European futures advanced, and a gauge of global equities reached another record high, on trade-deal optimism and increased expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts this year.

Wall Street’s rally is showing some signs of fatigue on speculation stocks have run too far amid economic and geopolitical risks. Longer-term Treasuries underperformed. Oil bounced from its biggest two-day plunge since 2022. The dollar fell to a three-year low. Just a few points away from its all-time high, the S&P 500 wavered. The Nasdaq 100 edged up, with Nvidia Corp. hitting a record. In late hours, Micron Technology Inc. gave an upbeat forecast. The Russell 2000 lost 1.2%. The yield gap between 30-year and five-year bonds is near levels last seen in 2021. The curve steepening is a wager the Federal Reserve will cut rates eventually while concern about debt issuance will pressure longer-term maturities. The dollar declined and Treasury yields edged lower on bets that US rate cuts could come sooner than expected, after a report that President Donald Trump is considering an early appointment for the next Federal Reserve chairman.

Wall Street bulls drove stocks higher amid easing Middle East tensions and balanced comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on prospects for rate cuts. Treasury yields and the dollar fell. Oil tumbled. The S&P 500 rose 1.1% and the Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.5%, notching its firstrecord since February. West Texas Intermediate crude plunged nearly 15% over two sessions to settle around $64 a barrel. In late hours, FedEx Corp. forecast a worse-than-expected profit. Money markets fully priced in two Fed cuts by the end of 2025, with a firstmove in September far more likely than next month — though bets on a July reduction edged up from last week.

Wall Street traders drove stocks higher as oil tumbled, with Iran’s retaliatory strikes at a US air base in Qatar seen as symbolic and unable to trigger a broader economic fallout. The dollar fell. The S&P 500 extended its gain to 1% as President Donald Trump raised hopes of de-escalating the Middle East conflict, saying the Iranian attack was “very weak” and telegraphed by Tehran. West Texas Intermediate sank below $70. As worries about an imminent threat to inflation abated, Treasury yields slid. The move was also fueled by a Federal Reserve official saying rates could drop as soon as July. Oil slumped and stocks gained as US President Donald Trump said Tuesday a ceasefire has been implemented between Israel and Iran, spurring optimism there will be a lasting pause in the conflict.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $74.80 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The WTI price has climbed to the highest level since January after the United States (US) launched direct attacks against Iran, raising fears of potential disruptions to energy supplies from the Middle East, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its steady intraday descent from the $3,400 neighborhood and refreshes its daily low heading into the European session. The US attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities on Sunday raises the risk of a broader conflict in the Middle East and underpins the US Dollar's (USD) status as the global reserve currency. Moreover, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish signal last week turns out to be another factor lending support to the Greenback and exerting downward pressure on the non-yielding yellow metal.

Oil trimmed earlier gains and equity futures remained lower after White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said President Trump will decide within two weeks whether to back Israel militarily in its conflict with Iran. The remarks offered some short-term clarity but did little to resolve broader uncertainty around potential US involvement and the risk of renewed energy-driven inflation. S&P 500 contracts slipped 0.9% in thin holiday trading. Europe’s Stoxx 600 dropped 0.8%, falling for a third straight session. Asian equities declined 1.4%, with losses concentrated in Japan and South Korea. West Texas Intermediate rose 0.7% to $75.8 a barrel. Brent crude advanced past $78 a barrel, extending gains in a week where market reaction to the Middle East conflict has been most concentrated in oil. The dollar was little-changed against a basket of currencies, after paring earlier gains.

A rally in stocks fizzledout after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that tariff-driven economic uncertainty and inflation risk continued to complicate the central bank’s bid to ease monetary policy in earnest. Gains in bonds waned. The dollar barely budged. Equities closed little changed, with the S&P 500 ending below 6,000 after briefly crossing that mark. Powell noted that increases in tariffs are likely to boost prices, while adding that the effects on inflation could be more persistent. He also declined to say if he’ll stay on after his term ends. Treasury two-year yields, which are more sensitive to imminent Fed moves, almost erased a decline that had earlier reached seven basis points. Equities declined as investors saw a growing likelihood of direct US involvement in Israel’s conflict with Iran, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned of meaningful inflation ahead.

Wall Street’s concerns that an escalation of tensions in the Middle East could trigger a more direct US involvement spurred a slide in stocks, which also dropped as weak economic data lifted bonds ahead of the Federal Reserve decision. Oil hit its highest since January. Risk-off sentiment prevailed, with the S&P 500 down nearly 1%. West Texas Intermediate settled around $75 a barrel. A gauge of crude-market volatility rose to a three-year high. The dollar climbed the most in over a month. Aside from geopolitical risks, Treasuries rose as tepid reports on retail sales, housing and industrial output supported bets the Fed will cut rates at least once more in 2025 if the rally in crude doesn’t turn out to be a threat to the disinflationary path. Oil traded near a five-month high on concern escalating tensions in the Middle East will trigger more direct US involvement. Equities were mixed before a Federal Reserve monetary policy decision.